Here's how a freight railroad strike will disrupt most everything you take for granted

AUTO INDUSTRY

Metra commuter rail service, which operates in the Chicago area, said Wednesday that it would suspend operations on four of its 11 lines on Friday if a work stoppage occurs. Some disruption on those lines would begin after rush hour Thursday night. In Minnesota, the operators of a commuter rail line that carries workers along a densely populated corridor from Minneapolis to northwestern suburbs and towns warned that service could be suspended as early as Friday.

A strike could have a significant impact on the energy industry, and could hurt consumers who would likely end up paying more for gasoline, electricity and natural gas. Refineries might have to halt production if they can’t get the deliveries they need, or if they don’t have access to rail to ship gasoline.

Experts say retailers have been shipping goods earlier in the season in recent months as a way to protect themselves from potential disruptions. But this buffer will only slightly minimize the impact from a railroad strike, which is brewing during the critical holiday shipping season, said Jesse Dankert, vice president of supply chain at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, a retail trade group that counts more than 200 retailers like Best Buy as its members. She noted that retailers are already feeling the impact from the uncertainty as some freight carriers are limiting services.

Livestock producers could see problems almost immediately if shipments of feed abruptly ended, according to the National Grain and Feed Association.

Meat and poultry groups noted the reliance on rail for shipments of feed and called for a quick resolution of the rail dispute. Every week, the nation’s chicken industry receives about 27 million bushels of corn and 11 million bushels of soybean meal to feed chickens, said Tom Super, senior vice president of the National Chicken Council.

The nation’s biggest freight railroads began negotiating with a dozen different unions representing about 115,000 workers in late 2019, but talks were slowed by the pandemic, which limited face-to-face meetings.

By federal law, the unions can't legally strike until after Friday morning, just after midnight. That's when a 30-day “cooling-off” period ends, under terms of a law called the Railway Labor Act, which governs contract talks in the railroad and airline industries.

Congress could intervene and block a strike or lockout, as it has done in previous nationwide rail-labor disputes, but it's not clear whether that would happen this time.

Rail workers stayed on the job throughout the pandemic but have not received a raise since 2019.

The unions sought raises of 31% over the five-year term of the new contracts, while the railroads offered 17% before the emergency board's recommendations. The largest railroads endorsed the board's middle-ground proposals, and most of the unions have reached tentative agreements based on those details.

Railroads such as Union Pacific, BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern carry cars, coal, chemicals, grain, imported goods and other products and raw materials throughout the country. A shutdown — even a brief one — would delay critical shipments and ripple across the economy.

The Association of American Railroads trade group estimates that a strike would cost the economy $2 billion a day. The Business Roundtable says a strike would be an “economic catastrophe.”

The White House is clearly worried that any disruption in supply chains just weeks before the November midterm elections could anger consumers, who are already facing the highest inflation in 40 years. That could hurt Democrats, who are trying to protect razor-thin control of the Senate and House.

Republicans will blame Democrats if there is a strike and Congress fails to stop it.