2024 NFL Week 4 odds, picks & predictions ATS: Let the big Dogs eat

Sure, it’s still early … but the 2024 NFL season might just go down as the year of the Underdog.

Especially the big Dogs against the spread.

Through three weeks, Underdogs of +5.5 point or more are a staggering 87.5% against the spread.

For real.

In the 16 games where there has been a spread of 5.5 or higher, Underdogs are 14-2 ATS and 10-6 straight up.

Now, that might not seem like a big deal, but let’s put it in context.

The Circa Survivor pool, worth $14.2 million, started out with 14,266 entries at the beginning of this season. Heading into Week 4, only 642 entrants remained, according to VSiN.

That means 95.5% of the field has already been wiped out. And we’re not even out of September.

Losses by Cincinnati in Week 1 to the Patriots, as well as Baltimore’s collapse in Week 2 to the Raiders, caused most of the carnage.

But who saw the Cowboys getting boat raced by the Saints in Week 2? How about the Vikings being 3-0? Or the Steelers starting undefeated?

And who saw the Broncos sideswiping the Bucs last week as 6-point favorites; or the Rams doing the same to the 49ers?

Here at FrontPageBets, we sure didn't.

The point is: There’s no safe favorite.

For the season, all Underdogs (regardless of point spread) are 25-22-1 (53.2%) against the spread through the first three weeks. It’s better for the favorite straight up, as they’re winning 60.4% (29-19) of the time.

But it bears repeating that the Dogs aren’t just barking, they’re biting.

Will that change as the season goes on? Probably.

But would you bet on it?

That’s the question as we head into Week 4.

And if we’re looking at point spreads of 5.5 points or more this week, these are the games to consider taking the Underdog:

• Chargers +7 vs. Chiefs
• Patriots +10.5 vs. 49ers
• Jaguars +6 vs. Texans
• Broncos +7.5 vs. Jets

For the season, the Chargers and Broncos are 2-1 ATS, while the Patriots are 1-1-1. The Jaguars are 1-2.

Speaking of season record against the spread, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings are not only undefeated straight up, they’re also perfect ATS.

On the other end, the Miami Dolphins (0-3), Tennessee Titans (0-3) and Houston Texans (0-2-1) are all winless against the spread.

And because the Dolphins and Titans play each other Sunday, one of them will remain 0-fer.

Now … onto the picks!

(All odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)

Sunday, Sept. 29

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

• When: 1 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-110); Saints +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Falcons -120; Saints +100
• Over/Under: 42 (-110)
• The pick: Saints, 28-21

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

• When: 1 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Packers -2.5 (-110); Vikings +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Packers -135; Vikings +110
• Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
• The pick: Packers, 30-24

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

• When: 1 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: Bears -3 (-110); Rams +3 (-110)
• Money line: Bears -135; Rams +115
• Over/Under: 41 (-110)
• The pick: Rams, 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• When: 1 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-110); Colts +1.5 (-110)
• Money line: Steelers -125; Colts +105
• Over/Under: 40 (-110)
• The pick: Steelers, 14-10

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

• When: 1 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Jets -7.5 (-110); Broncos +7.5 (-110)
• Money line: Jets -350; Broncos +260
• Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
• The pick: Jets, 17-14

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• When: 1 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110); Buccaneers +1.5 (-110)
• Money line: Eagles -145; Buccaneers +120
• Over/Under: 43 (-110)
• The pick: Buccaneers, 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

• When: 1 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: Bengals -4.5 (-110); Panthers +4.5 (-110)
• Money line: Bengals -250; Panthers +200
• Over/Under: 47.5 (-110)
• The pick: Bengals, 33-17

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

• When: 1 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Texans -6 (-110); Jaguars +6 (-110)
• Money line: Texans -225; Jaguars +185
• Over/Under: 45.5 (-110)
• The pick: Texans, 24-21

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

• When: 4 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: Cardinals -3.5 (-110); Commanders +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Cardinals -225; Commanders +190
• Over/Under: 50.5 (-110)
• The pick: Cardinals, 30-28

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

• When: 4 p.m.: FOX
• Spread: 49ers -10.5 (-110); Patriots +10.5 (-110)
• Money line: 49ers -600; Patriots +450
• Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
• The pick: 49ers, 20-11

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• When: 4:25 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Chiefs -7 (-110); Chargers +7 (-110)
• Money line: Chiefs -300; Chargers +240
• Over/Under: 39.5 (-110)
• The pick: Chiefs, 22-17

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• When: 4:25 p.m.: CBS
• Spread: Raiders -2 (-110); Browns +2 (-110)
• Money line: Browns -115; Raiders -105
• Over/Under: 37 (-110)
• The pick: Browns, 21-10

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

• When: 8:20 p.m.: NBC
• Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110); Bills +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Ravens -145; Bills +120
• Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
• The pick: Ravens, 24-20

Monday, Sept. 30

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

• When: 7:30 p.m.: ESPN
• Spread: Dolphins -1 (-110); Titans +1 (-110)
• Money line: Titans -110; Dolphins -110
• Over/Under: 36.5 (-110)
• The pick: Titans, 14-10

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

• When: 8:15 p.m.: ABC
• Spread: Lions -3.5 (-110); Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Lions -225; Seahawks +180
• Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
• The pick: Lions, 30-25

Szvetitz Week 3 Totals: 9-7 ATS; 6-10 SU

Szvetitz Season Total: 30-18 ATS; 28-20 SU

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