NFL Week 13 picks and predictions

As we head into the final six weeks of the regular season, a few things have become apparent.

First, it's not about how you start, it's about how you finish. For example, yours truly started last week's NFL slate 8-2 against the spread. I finished 9-7. If coffee is for closers, order me a vanilla frostie.

The second thing we've learned is that underdogs are winning at a 56% clip ATS, according to TeamRankings.com, through 12 weeks of the season. Running with the dogs helped pull me out of a midseason slump.

Then there's the gut check. Sometimes it just feels right.

That's why I'm going with the Miami Dolphins to beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road Sunday afternoon despite being 4-point underdogs. I'm also going with the 7-point underdog Houston Texans to win straight up against the visiting Cleveland Browns.

Then there are the road warriors. Out of Sunday's 13 games, I'm taking six road teams to win, including four to cover. Those six teams are 19-14 against the spread on the road and 19-14 straight up away from home, including the Los Angeles Chargers, who are 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-2 money line.

On to the picks!

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change) 

Sunday, Dec. 4 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• When: 1 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Falcons -1 (-110); Steelers +1 (-110)
• Money line: Falcons -110; Steelers -110
• Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)
• The pick: Falcons, 22-17

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

• When: 1 p.m., FOX
• Spread: Packers -4.5 (-110); Bears +4.5 (-110)
• Money line: Packers -190; Bears +160
• Over/Under: 43 (-110)
• The pick: Packers, 28-20

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

• When: 1 p.m., FOX
• Spread: Lions -1 (-110); Jaguars +1 (-110)
• Money line: Lions -110; Jaguars -110
• Over/Under: 51.5 (-110)
• The pick: Lions, 25-23

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings

• When: 1 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Vikings -3 (-110); Jets +3 (-110)
• Money line: Vikings -150; Jets +130
• Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
• The pick: Vikings, 30-20

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

• When: 1 p.m., FOX
• Spread: Commanders -2.5 (-110); Giants +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Commanders -135; Giants +115
• Over/Under: 40 (-110)
• The pick: Commanders, 22-18

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• When: 1 p.m., FOX
• Spread: Eagles -5 (-110); Titans +5 (-110)
• Money line: Eagles -230; Titans +195
• Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
• The pick: Eagles, 21-20

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

• When: 1 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Ravens -8 (-110); Broncos +8 (-110)
• Money line: Ravens -350; Broncos +290
• Over/Under: 38.5 (-110)
• The pick: Ravens, 30-15

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

• When: 1 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Browns -7 (-110); Texans +7 (-110)
• Money line: Browns -315; Texans +260
• Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
• The pick: Texans, 17-15

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• When: 4:05 p.m., FOX
• Spread: Seahawks -7 (-110); Rams +7 (-110)
• Money line: Seahawks -350; Rams +290
• Over/Under: 41 (-110)
• The pick: Seahawks, 29-25

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

• When: 4:05 p.m., FOX
• Spread: 49ers -4 (-110); Dolphins +4 (-110)
• Money line: 49ers -205; Dolphins +175
• Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
• The pick: Dolphins, 21-19

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• When: 4:25 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Chiefs -2 (-110); Bengals +2 (-110)
• Money line: Chiefs -135; Bengals +115
• Over/Under: 52.5 (-110)
• The pick: Chiefs, 34-28

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• When: 4:25 p.m., CBS
• Spread: Chargers -1 (-110); Raiders +1 (-110)
• Money line: Chargers -110; Raiders -110
• Over/Under: 50.5 (-110)
• The pick: Chargers, 30-27

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

• When: 8:20 p.m., NBC
• Spread: Cowboys -10.5 (-110); Colts +10.5 (-110)
• Money line: Cowboys -560; Colts +430
• Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
• The pick: Cowboys, 32-10

Monday, Dec. 5

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• When: 8:15 p.m., ESPN
• Spread: Buccaneers -4 (-110); Saints +4 (-110)
• Money line: Buccaneers -195; Saints +165
• Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
• The pick: Buccaneers, 22-15

Szvetitz season record: 112-68 straight up; 89-86-5 ATS

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