A look at who the public is backing in betting on Super Bowl 56, Bengals vs. Rams

With 31.4 million Americans projected to wager more than $7.6 billion – yes, billion – on Super Bowl 56, it’s not surprising to see movement in the main betting markets.

The line opened with the Los Angeles Rams favored by 4 points at most major sportsbooks. It quickly moved to 4.5 with heavy early action on the Rams, who were backed by 55% of the spread-line handle in the first 24 hours at DraftKings.

The line held at 4.5 points for more than a week but shortened back to 4 by Thursday at DraftKings, where the Cincinnati Bengals are being backed by 63% of the bets and 59% of the spread-line handle.

The Bengals’ +170 moneyline has also been a popular market, drawing 65% of the bets and 58% of the handle.

Oddsmakers expected late action on Cincinnati and the Over, and both predictions are coming to light. The 48.5-point Over/Under at DraftKings, where the market opened at 49.5, has seen 58% of the bets and 57% of the handle backing the Over.

Who will be most valuable?

Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP honors 31 times, more than the rest of the other positions combined. That includes 11 of the past 15 Super Bowl MVPs.

Randy White, who shared the award with teammate Harvey Martin as part of the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive line that dominated Super Bowl 12, is the only defensive tackle to be named a Super Bowl MVP. The only other defensive lineman to win the award was Chicago’s Richard Dent in Super Bowl 20.

The public is betting heavily on that 36-year drought to end at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

Rams All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald leads the way at DraftKings with 17.9% of the MVP bets and 20.3% of the handle. It helps that Donald offers +1600 odds – and that Cincinnati allowed nine sacks of quarterback Joe Burrow in its divisional round win over Tennessee.

The Rams’ pass rush vs. the Bengals’ offensive line is considered one of the biggest mismatches between the two teams. That’s despite Burrow being sacked just once by Kansas City.

The two quarterbacks remain the favorites, with Burrow (+225) drawing 14.8% of the bets and 20% of the handle. Counterpart Matthew Stafford hasn’t been as popular at +100, with the Rams quarterback backed by just 5.7 and 8.6% of the action, respectively.

That’s well behind his primary target. Record-setting Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (+600) is being backed by 12.2% of the bets and 13.8% of the handle.

Have a thirst for some history? The public is also getting behind Evan McPherson, the rookie kicker who has converted four field goals in each of the Bengals’ three playoff victories.

McPherson offers longshot odds at +1300 – which makes sense given a kicker has never won Super Bowl MVP honors. Cincinnati’s young cult hero is being backed by 6.3% of the bets and 6.0% of the handle at DraftKings.

Considering the firepower at Stafford’s disposal, the Bengals will likely be in trouble if they’re settling for another quartet of field-goal attempts from McPherson.

Receiving plenty of interest

Cincinnati ranked 26^th in pass defense during the regular season and now must contend with the dynamic duo of Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr.

How the Bengals will choose to cover Kupp and OBJ is one of the big pregame storylines. OBJ only has one touchdown catch over his past four games, but Cincinnati will no doubt focus primary coverage on Kupp, who torched the Bengals for 220 yards on just seven receptions in 2019.

Kupp is the +500 favorite at DraftKings to score the first touchdown Sunday and leads the market with 22.1% of the bets and 26.1% of the handle. OBJ has only the fifth-shortest odds at +900 but is second to Kupp in both the number of total bets (16.2%) and handle (19.2%).

Bengals rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase (+800) is the next most popular First Touchdown Scorer with 8.8% and 8.6% of the action, respectively.

He’s followed by running backs Joe Mixon (Bengals) and Cam Akers (Rams), who are both being offered at +750. Mixon is being backed by 8% of the bets and 7.9% of the handle, slightly ahead of Akers (5.8, 6.8).

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