The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers look to rebound from a tough loss with an even tougher opponent, as they head on the road to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in our game of the week.
Everything about last week’s Monday night matchup favored the New England Patriots. But they don’t play the games on paper.
Recent trends and history didn’t stop Justin Fields from having his best game of the season as the Chicago Bears blew past the Patriots.
Maybe it’s time to think a little more outside the box, especially as the visiting Cincinnati Bengals are only favored by three points over the Cleveland Browns this week. In a divisional, in-state rivalry like this, it doesn’t need to be Halloween for something ghoulish to happen.
FrontPageBets is back to break down three picks and predictions for this Halloween showdown.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change)
Browns money line (+145)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals have righted things, winning four of their last five, while the Browns enter this game on a four-game losing streak. But that doesn’t begin to tell the story.
Burrow has never beaten the Browns in three career starts against them. He also rested ahead of the playoffs last year in a Week 18 game that Cleveland won, giving the Browns four straight wins and seven in their past eight against their Ohio rivals.
Burrow entered the league in 2020, the same year Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach in Cleveland and Joe Woods assumed the defensive coordinator role. They’ve held Burrow to just six touchdowns with three interceptions in those three games.
Most notably, the Browns have also tallied 12 sacks in that time -- four per game. And although the Bengals’ offensive line has straightened some things out, allowing just 11 sacks over the past five games, banged-up Cleveland pass rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will both play Monday, forming a likely mismatch at the line.
The Browns are likely better than their 2-5 record says; four of their five losses have come by three points or fewer. The Bengals have had a few easy wins and a close call against the below-average New Orleans Saints. It will take a division rival who’s plenty familiar with them to hit them in the mouth again.
Burrow longest completion under 38.5 yards (-110)
Due to a lingering hip injury, Ja’Marr Chase isn’t walking through that door Monday. Yes, the Bengals are loaded at wide receiver, but losing Chase takes away their best big-play threat.
Tee Higgins’ longest reception this year is 59 yards; Tyler Boyd’s is 60. But the truth is, they become less daunting for the Browns’ secondary to cover when they don’t also have to worry about Chase.
Cleveland ranks in the top half of the league in passing defense (210.4 yards per game). The longest completion they allowed to Lamar Jackson last week went 31 yards; two weeks before that, against Chargers star arm Justin Herbert, the long completion was 38.
Besides all this, the Browns are much, much weaker defending the run than the pass. The Bengals are more than capable in that area with Joe Mixon, and if he breaks off a few longer runs, it could spell shorter fields for Burrow to need to work with.
Nick Chubb under 83.5 rushing yards (-115)
Chubb is the NFL’s leading rusher through seven weeks at 740 yards. He’s on pace to surpass his career high of 1,494, and he wouldn’t even need the “extra” 17th game to do it.
But after a very hot start to the season, he’s slowed down just a tad. He gained 56 yards in a Week 6 blowout loss to the Patriots and reached 91 last week against the Ravens, just eking past the 83.5 over/under total we’re looking at this week.
Obviously, Chubb will get fewer handoffs when the Browns are playing from behind, and Cleveland may need to air it out this week to keep up with the Bengals.
There’s also the Kareem Hunt question. This is the last game before the trade deadline Tuesday. Hunt requested a trade before the season and was denied, but now the Browns might be facing the reality that they’re sellers at the deadline. Do they increase his workload Monday to show off their asset and sweeten any offers coming their way? That could also eat into Chubb’s opportunities.
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Adam Zielonka is a senior editor and sports betting writer for Field Level Media. Follow him on Twitter at @Adam_Zielonka
