The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots kick off Week 13 and the month of December with a prime-time Thursday night AFC East clash from Foxborough.
This will be the Bills (8-3) third game in 12 days, all on the road. Since losing back-to-back games to start November, Buffalo has turned it around, winning two in a row -- both in Detroit, by the way.
New England (6-5) has won five of their last seven games, and also played on Thanksgiving Day, just like the Bills.
With all things being equal, Buffalo is the better team and enters Thursday night's game as a 4.5-point road favorite.
Against the spread, the Bills are 5-5-1 and have yet to be an underdog this season. As road favorites, Buffalo is 2-3-1.
This will be just the second time this year that the Patriots are home underdogs. Against the spread, New England is 6-4-1 and 2-3 as an underdog ATS.
FrontPageBets takes a look at three best bets for this Thursday night divisional matchup, as well as predicting the outcome against the spread.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change)
In this week’s FPBcast, Gerry Ahern and Mike Szvetitz also discuss the College Football Playoffs – who should be in, who should be out.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (+105)
It’s hard to keep Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs out of the end zone.
The veteran out of Maryland has snagged nine TD passes this season, which is good enough for third in the NFL, while also pulling in 84 receptions (2nd in the league) for 1,110 yards (3rd).
Diggs had caught a touchdown pass in five of his last seven games. As Josh Allen’s go-to guy, Diggs will get plenty of looks in prime time against the Patriots, who have given up 15 TD passes this season.
Patriots QB Mac Jones over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
If you take out the Week 7 game against the Chicago Bears where he was benched in the first half, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is averaging 250.7 passing yards per game.
In his last two games, he’s thrown for 246 vs. the New York Jets and 382 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, respectively. His completion percentage was off the charts in those two games as well -- 85.2% in the 10-3 win over the Jets and 71.8% in a 33-26 Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings.
The Bills defense is in the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game with 221.6. But with the loss of defensive end Von Miller to injury, their pass rush won’t be as effective. That could give Jones more time to throw for more yardage.
Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)
Buffalo offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey figured out a way to use the speedy, undersized Isaiah McKenzie in their win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
The epiphany led to a big day for McKenzie, as he caught six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted 10 times.
It was by far the most productive day for the 5-foot-8 receiver, who had only one other game this season with more than four catches.
As defenses look to shut down Diggs and Gabe Davis, look for Dorsey and Allen to continue to find ways to get McKenzie the ball -- in the slot, out of the backfield and in stacks.
- When:Â 8:15 p.m., PRIME
- Spread:Â Bills -4.5 (-110); Patriots+4.5 (-110)
- Money line:Â Bills -215; Patriots +185
- Over/Under:Â 43.5 (-110)
- The pick: Bills, 28-17
Gambling problem? There is help. Call 1-800-522-4700 or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for help.
Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 22-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
