FrontPageBets' equine expert handicaps the 2022 Kentucky Derby

He is not here physically but he is still most definitely here. Bob Baffert will haunt Churchill Downs this week like the ghost of Kentucky Derbies past.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby seven times as a trainer and is unquestionably the face of thoroughbred racing. However, that seventh winner, Medina’s Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified from last year’s Derby. Baffert was banned by Churchill Downs officials for two years for the violation and then suspended for 90 days by the state of Kentucky racing officials. That suspension will be honored nationwide.

That’s why Baffert isn’t here, but two horses he used to train, Taiba and Messier, are. Both are projected to be factors in the race. Neither would be a surprising winner. They are now trained by little-known Tim Yakteen, but if they won, who do you think is going to get the credit?

Meeting reporters at Churchill Downs this week, Yakteen amicably answered questions without providing any revealing information. To say he is several lengths up the track from Baffert in that area would be an understatement.

Yakteen is a former assistant to Baffert but has been training on his own for 17 years. His recent record is good. He’s won 11 of 62 races this year, a 17% winning percentage, according to equibase.com. Lifetime, he’s at 13% and he’s never run a horse in the Derby.

Before his suspension, Baffert won 22 of 68 races this year, a 32% winning percentage. Lifetime, he’s 23%.

If you’re interested in wagering on either of these entrants, you’ve got to hope that Baffert’s influence is still lingering. However, even though you’ve probably never heard of him, Yakteen is competent and these two horses are live.

FrontPageBets looks at what to expect in the 148th Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Fast company from California

Taiba is the most interesting horse in the field, a $1.7 million purchase. He’s only run two races, winning the Santa Anita Handicap in his second start, an unheard of accomplishment. Yakteen only ran him in the race at the urging of the owner, Amr Zedan, a situation that usually ends in disaster. In this case, the owner was correct. Messier is a big colt named after the Hall-of-Fame hockey player, Mark Messier, who has rolled up multiple impressive victories.

Both colts will be running close to the early pace, maybe even on the lead and the pace will be crucial. Since the advent of the points system to qualify for the 2013 Derby field, the pace of the race has slowed and horses near the front in the early going have fared better. The point system rewards performances in longer races and it has weeded out horses that won races at shorter distances as 2-year-olds who might have provided faster early fractions.

According to a study done by Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News, since the point system began, the Derby winner has been no worse than third in the first quarter mile except for Orb in 2013.

The pace of this year’s Derby has the potential to be faster, starting with Taiba and Messier but also could include Summer is Tomorrow, Classic Causeway and Zozos. If that group goes fast enough, it might set up for a rallying victory by the morning-line favorite, Zendon. Mo Donegal is another dangerous runner but he is compromised by starting from the No.1 post position, which hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 1986.

Watch that first quarter-mile fraction. If it’s 47 seconds or more, that’s good for the front runners. Less than that, the late runners have a chance especially if it’s as fast as 45 seconds.

We're talking about practice

Workouts – the proverbial practice sessions for thoroughbreds -- have affected the betting odds more than ever. American Pharoah’s final workout before his Derby was legendary in the minds of the experts – known as clockers – who time and observe these affairs. The most impressive workout for this year’s Derby belongs to Zandon, who looked fantastic in a five-furlong workout last week. That workout influenced the morning-line maker to install him as the favorite.

Epicenter seemed to be the logical favorite after an impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby with a good speed figure but he’s the second choice. He has the correct running style. He won’t be on the lead but he won’t be far off it either and he’s versatile enough to adjust his running style.  

Foreign intrigue

There are two interesting international horses, Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride. Summer is Tomorrow has done all his racing in Dubai and could be part of the early pace. Crown Pride is Japanese owned and trained and is coming off a victory in the UAE Derby in Dubai. The Japanese have become a force internationally including two victories in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and winning the Derby is next on their list. Crown Pride is a grinder who hasn’t exhibited great acceleration; he wears down the competition.

Projecting how the race will be run, Messier and Taiba will be up near the front, most likely with Classic Causeway and Summer Is Tomorrow. Epicenter, Charge It and White Abarrio will be in the next group. Zandon and Mo Donegal will be near the back.

Those early fractions could decide the winner. I’m confident that jockey John Velazquez will make the correct decision with Messier. That is, either go to the front with slower fractions or wait behind other horses who are running too fast early. That seems like a winning formula that will make Yakteen a Derby-winning trainer. Or in the minds of some, it will be Baffert’s eighth Derby victory.

Sullivan's prediction: 1. Messier, 2. Epicenter, 3. Zandon.

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